Join institute Director Mairi Spowage, who has a conversation with Professor Paul De Leeuw, Head of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University, and Hayley Strachan, who leads Deloitte’s Global Employer Services (GES) practice in Scotland.
This episode explores whether the energy sector – and particularly the North East of Scotland – is at a genuine turning point. The conversation looks at how a “just transition” could play out for workers and supply chains as the North Sea continues to decline, and how policy choices over the next five to seven years could mean either many more jobs in offshore energy or a sharp loss of capacity and capability. The guests unpack the idea of an “energy workforce”, not tied to a single fuel, and discuss how companies are increasingly global, chasing projects and moving people across borders while trying to stay agile in a volatile market.
Alongside that, they dig into the UK’s shifting tax regime in the North Sea, the impact of the windfall levy, the challenges of the current investment climate, and the added frictions from employment law changes and immigration policy. New modelling shows that the pace of decline in oil and gas could have material economic impacts, especially for Scotland and the North East, where offshore activity underpins a large share of jobs and GVA. Despite the risks and recent redundancies, the tone ends up cautiously optimistic: with clearer policy, better signalling from government and the right incentives, the UK still has the chance to turn its existing strengths – workforce, supply chain and North Sea assets – into a world-class, net zero-focused energy powerhouse.
This episode is the fifth in a series partnering Deloitte with the Fraser of Allander Institute. In this series expect lively debate, expert insights, and thought-provoking discussions that will reshape the conversation around Scottish economic growth. Culminating in a landmark event in March 2026, this collaboration will unveil ground-breaking insights and provide a platform for action. This Scottish-focused initiative builds upon Deloitte’s UK-wide Growth 35 programme, painting a bold vision for a thriving UK economy by 2035.
Timestamps
(00:00) – (04:30) – Welcome, context & guest introductions
(04:30) – (12:30) – Is the energy sector at a turning point? – “Striking the Balance”
(12:30) – (21:00) – From oil & gas to an “energy workforce” and a global supply chain
(21:00) – (31:30) – Investment climate and the North Sea fiscal regime
(31:30) – (38:00) – Employment rights, immigration policy and agility
(38:00) – (42:00) – Economic modelling: managed vs accelerated decline
(42:00) – (45:41) – Lessons from 2015, current mood & reasons for optimism
The full transcript is available here.
Authors
Mairi is the Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute. Previously, she was the Deputy Chief Executive of the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Head of National Accounts at the Scottish Government and has over a decade of experience working in different areas of statistics and analysis.
Paul De Leeuw
Paul is currently the Director of Robert Gordon University’s Energy Transition Institute, Chair of the National Energy Skills Accelerator, Chair of PlanSea Solutions, a Board member of the International School in Aberdeen and a Professor at Robert Gordon University (UK).
Hayley Strachan
Hayley leads Deloitte's Global Employer Services (GES) practice in Scotland, with presence in Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow. She and her team provide tax and legal services which support Scotland's employers with engaging, deploying and retaining their global workforce. Hayley has more than 17 years of experience partnering with clients in the energy sector and financial services industry and she is the GES UK leader for Sustainability and Climate, and Mobility in M&A.